MAY PREDICTIONS, PART 1

shane_mosley_vs_saul_alvarez May is, as usual, a big month for boxing. I must congratulate Golden Boy for bringing back something that I had not seen in years... the mega-card. Canelo Alvarez vs. Shane Mosley is easily it's own PPV attarction, but instead, it is being offered as an undercard of Mayweather-Cotto. The benefit of this is three-fold. One, they can set up a future Mayweather-Alvarez match-up, that will be all in-house at Golden Boy. Two, they can squeeze one last big money bout out of Mosley, and three, they can continue to fool the public into beleiving that Alvarez is a future star.

Amir Khan vs. Lamont Peterson 2
The rematch being held on more neutral territory is a surprise to me. I would have figured this match a natural for Britain, but Khan gained a lot of respect for going into Peterson's backyard, and perhaps he does not want the rematch decided by any hometown influence on either side. It is a bizarre situation where one fighter wins while still showing his opponent's superiority. One got the feeling after the great Corrales vs. Castillo battle, that if Castillo made adjustments, he could have it much easier, even thought he lost. The same can be said here. I missed this call with Salido vs. Juanma, and if Peterson is one of thoe fighters who becmes infinitely better after being crowned champion, then Khan will be in trouble. However, with better judges, a better referee, and a better strategy for Peterson closing the gap, I see Khan pulling away. Peterson is durable, but I think this time Khan is ready for that. Khan by UD.

Shane Mosley vs. Saul "Canelo" Alvarez
Should Cotto-Mayweather be uncompetitive, which is the belief held by many, Alvarez vs. Mosley is sure to be more exciting. Also, that fight will let us know once and for all if Mosley is finished. True, he has looked bad against Pacquiao and Mayweather, but who hasn't? Mosley has never shined against fighters who could come close to matching his speed. However, he has never lost to a Mexican (except de la Hoya, over whom he has a bad decision win), and he has made a career of beating face-first sluggers. The Alvarez of 2009 would not even be favored against the post-Margarito Mosley of the same year, but he has since shown speed an boxing ability, therefore, now's the time. I think Mosley is encouraged by the slow aging of other fighters, but they have not been reflex-based fighters like he and Roy Jones are. If he was able to go into survival mode against Pacquiao, a much fasfter fighter, he clearly can survive against Alvarez. I actually don't expect the fireworks that many people do here, beyond about round 3. Alvarez by unanimous decision, in a fight that does not make his case for being competitive against Mayweather.

Floyd Mayweather vs. Miguel Cotto
This fight is being made as a slap at Bob Arum. He tried to build this fight by handing Cotto hand-picked opponents, and now that it's here, he doesn't get his cut. Maybe Floyd's ego will finally be quelled enough to go back to his 50/50 numbers for a Pacquiao match. This is all contingent on Pacquiao beating Bradley... by no means a slam-dunk, but if both big stars are victorious, Pacquiao will be the one in the drivers seat again, as his victory will have been much more satisfying. Bradley is a nightmare to fight. He's fast, strong, durable, has tons of stamina, and comes in with his bowling ball skull. All things that can frustrate Pacquiao. If you are making a list of the ways Cotto can frustrate Mayweather, you're doing better than I am. I cannot think of a thing Cotto does better than Floyd at this stage of his career. Even his power at 154 is not far above Floyd's. Cotto will land enough to make it interesting for the first few rounds, but that will mostly be because Mayweather allows him to. Like Ortiz and Judah, there will be a moment around round 4 or so, where the gap in ability will become wide, and Mayweather will pull away. Unlike Judah, Cotto's skin will not let him make it to the final bell. Mayweather by TKO, about round 8 or 9.

Chris Strait
www.convictedartist.com