This was the lowest risk / highest reward fight available to both men. It is still a risky fight, which tells you what kind of options each man is facing. Other than Canelo's budding PPV career, this is the first pay-per-view in many years that both has the boxing world deeply interested, and does not involve Pacquiao or Mayweather. In fact, Martinez-Chavez Jr is the only other one that comes to mind. Cotto and Martinez also may never each be seen in a boxing ring again after this fight, depending on the outcome. They have both certainly earned the right to be here, and have carried pay-per-views as a B-side before, but this is another situation entirely.
Cotto's options were either another loss to either Manny or Floyd, or perhaps an even lesser loss to someone like Lara. Delvin Rodriguez was chosen as a foil because of his perfect style, but that being said, he looked far more dominant than expected. If the motivation is there, he can overtake many a young and unsure opponent, but that is not the case here. Martinez was facing losses to Golovkin, or maybe even even fights with Geale or Quillin. While Cotto appears diminished by time and wars... Martinez's wear and tear is mostly from injury. However, as a man approaches 40, and has been running, biking, and kicking his whole life, BEFORE he became a boxer... he is going to have injuries. This fight is actually a good way for both fighters to go out.
The whispers have been that Martinez's leg is done, as well as his hands. Hands can heal when left alone over time, but the knee is likely to go on Sergio again. However, Cotto is not a relentless pressure fighter, and does not have a frustrating defense. He will however, be able to break Sergio's rhythm more than most, and force a more exciting fight than would otherwise be the case. That, though, leads to one of Cotto's achilles heels.. his skin. Will he bust up? More than likely. Neither man is known for an iron chin, either. Neither is weak-chinned, but knockdowns are a definite, and TKO losses are a possibility.
Basically the question is two fold: who has aged more, and what will break down first: Martinez's body, or Cotto's face? In between all of this, you pretty much have to predict based on what will happen if the fight is not stopped because of either of these things. Neither man has been stopped because of these shortcomings before, so they can be depended upon to fight through anything, if allowed. The heart and styles will make for a very entertaining fight... one that Sergio will simply win more rounds within the drama. His boxing skills will ensure it. Due to that simple fact, he is headed for a UD win, or late TKO on cuts.
Chris Strait
www.convictedartist.com
