Many Boxing fans are getting ready for an intriguing bout this Saturday, August 22nd, 2009, between Juan “Baby Bull” Diaz and Paulie “ Magic Man” Malignaggi in Houston, Texas at the Toyota Center.
First, I will re-iterate that a fighter’s record doesn’t mean a damned thing to me, so you will never see me dropping records when I write about two fighters. The only things that matters to me with regard to the numbers on a record are knockouts and quality of opposition when a fighter reaches their pinnacle and earns themselves a Championship belt.
This is especially true when you have two fighters like Paulie and Juan who didn’t have to fight each other, both had high profile defeats within three fights between both of them, and most importantly, will fight anyone. I have to give my props to both of these fighters because they are not settling for anything but the best opposition.
This fight is what many would call a “crossroads fight” and the writing is already on the wall that many people will “write-off” the loser of this weekends fight. To that I say, “Now hear this: F*CK THAT SH*T!”
It would be naive and stupid to write off either of these two fighters when the fight is over. This isn’t a “crossroads” fight; this is a fight between two elite fighters who have fought elite fighters in the past. As such, I will gladly face-off with any writer who professes that either Paulie or Juan are “finished,” “damaged goods,” “Bums,” Blah, blah, f*ckin’ blah when this fight is over. In fact, this will be my policy from now on because like it or not, your “Club Fighter” would probably whip yours and my ass eight times out of ten, and fighters like Paulie and Juan would make you and I look stupid before they mopped the floor with us.
I digress.
This weekend, I am seeing only one result: Juan Diaz winning by either late stoppage or a wide unanimous decision. I understand that Paulie has voiced concern about not getting a fair shake in Houston, and Paulie has every right to be concerned, however I don’t think it will be an issue. I have never seen Juan receive any gifts when he fights at home, and he sure as hell didn’t receive one last February against the great Juan Manuel Marquez in a non-stop, brutal assault that was a f*cking roller coaster ride into hell and back...And that was just from where I was sitting.
The reason that I think that Juan Diaz will win and that Paulie Malignaggi will lose is simple:
Styles.
Anyone who has seen Juan Diaz fight knows that he is like the Tasmanian devil. Juan throws a lot of punches from a lot of angles and has way better defense than people give him credit for. Juan has a very good knack for being able to rip into someone while in the pocket while keeping his guard up and head moving which makes him less prone to counters with the sole exception being the uppercut. At the same time, Juan is still learning how to fight how he always has when he gets cut over his eye. At this moment in time, Juan’s two biggest issues are being prone to being hit by uppercuts and being able to fight the way he always does when there is blood pouring into his eyes. I don’t feel that the latter has anything to do with his mentality in the ring, rather Juan is learning how do deal with an adversity that isn’t typical in his fights. Juan has fought power-punchers, speedsters, counter-punchers, inside fighters, rangy fighters, you name it- he has fought it.
Anyone who has seen Paulie Malignaggi fight knows that he is slick, brings a lot of speed to the table, has fast feet and great movement. Paulie’s lone issue which he is aware of is the fact that he has problems with his hands, hence him having 5 KO’s on a superb record. Paulie is a rare talent because he has amassed such a record with his “Achilles Heel” of sorts. It says a lot about a fighter when they can keep winning despite having issues with being able to knock an opponent out. Therefore, you should already know that Paulie will be in the best shape he has been in, because he has no choice but to train for fights that will go the distance as does Juan, who has the type of power to yield respect, but not enough to stretch out a fighter with one punch. Like Juan, Paulie has fought power-punchers, speedsters, counter-punchers, inside fighters, rangy fighters and again, you name it, Paulie has fought it.
A lot of people gave Paulie a lot of sh*t because they felt that Paulie looked like he was on the slide against Lovemore N’dou when they fought in Manchester England. To be fair, many said the same about Ricky Hatton the same night when Ricky fought Juan Lazcano. Well...I’d love to see how a writer would fare in a twelve round fight when it is fifty-five f*cking degrees outside. Anyone who has participated in outdoor sports during the winter knows that your muscles get tight, they freeze up. Your tendons start to feel like rubber bands that are stretched to capacity and that is with clothing on. All four of the aforementioned fighters had boots and trunks. Dwell on it for a bit if you see the need, or better yet, if it is fifty degrees where you are, go take a jog for an hour and see how your muscles and lungs feel. Don’t cheat though! Wear nothing but shoes, socks and shorts. (Unless you’re a lady who doesn’t care about a top less run in the cold; I’m sure most won’t complain.)
Now that there is some established background, here is what I think is going to happen:
Paulie will look to establish distance early with his jab and try to set up his counters off of Juan’s hooks and come-forward style. I think that in the early rounds, Paulie will look sharp and will be able to effectively keep his distance. The only problem that I touched on earlier is that Juan won’t have a need to respect Paulie's power, and as such, will start to walk down Paulie and rip into his body.
That is the point where Paulie will find himself being forced to fight an inside fight against a fighter who has a ton of volume and is accurate at that. Paulie will go into the trenches with Juan, especially if Paulie’s jab gets abandoned as it has in the past when he is forced to fight on the inside. As the middle rounds progress, Paulie will start to slow down due to being hit in the body by Juan and any boxing fan knows that when you slow down against Juan, you’re in for a rough night because that is the turning point of a typical Juan Diaz fight. When Juan takes his opponents legs away, Juan is able to tee off on his opponent as he damned well pleases, and he will not stop. Don’t get me wrong- Juan isn’t going to knock out Paulie because Paulie has a hell of a chin. (Paulie was very competitive against Cotto who hits like a f*cking wrecking ball, and Paulie had a badly fractured cheekbone in his bout against Cotto.)
Likewise, Juan Diaz has a great chin and as such, won’t be bothered by what Paulie has to offer in the power department.
If a stoppage does occur, it will likely be in the late rounds (say 9th thru 11th) based on an accumulation of punches and Paulie’s corner throwing in the towel. I know that if that happens, Paulie will be pissed because he wants to fight, dammit! I think that if Paulie gets stopped by Juan, it will be reminiscent of Juan’s fight with Acelino Freitas...Only there is no f*cking way that Paulie will quit. Not in a month of Sundays.
I think that the most likely ending is Juan losing the early rounds before he starts to build momentum which will allow him to work (Paulie is gonna’ make Juan work) his way to a unanimous decision victory. I am thinking it will be in the ball-park of 116-112 for Diaz should the fight go all 12 rounds.
Pour vous, it would be foolish to count out Paulie winning as well. If Paulie is able to keep his distance, throw educated shots from lateral angles and move as soon as he rattles off a combo, then Paulie can win this one. If Paulie is able to cut Juan open, then Paulie’s chances of winning go up as well. If Paulie is able to keep Juan away from getting in close, then Paulie will get the nod, but I just don’t see either happening because Juan will just be too much for Paulie to handle.
Make no mistake- Paulie and Juan might not be one-punch KO artists, however they will get into the trenches with one-another and neither is afraid of being punched, especially given that they have both been hit by opponents that hit a lot harder than themselves. I am expecting a war of attrition in this fight, and I know that these two will deliver on Saturday night. You can watch it live at Toyota Center (Damn, I wish I had tickets right now) or live on HBO this Saturday, August 22nd, at 9:45 p.m.
The bottom lines are:
Kudos to these two warriors for making this fight happen. These two fighters are allowing us to learn about what the term “throwback fighter” means because they are not settling on second tier opposition, rather they are proving that they want to make a conscious effort to challenge themselves. Hopefully more fighters will take notice of this and follow suit, as Juan and Paulie are not only challenging themselves, they are also leading by example when it comes to a fighter challenging oneself. If anyone is taking this fight as a “gimmie” for either fighter, they ought to have their heads checked. That or have Juan and Paulie check it for them.
At the end of the night, I think Diaz takes it in what will be a very thrilling fight to watch.
Don’t forget! August 22nd, at 9:45 eastern time on HBO or at Toyota center in Houston. You won’t want to miss this one!
