SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS - Middleweight Explosion

boxing_image In September, within two weeks of one another, things are finally going to get interesting at 160. By the middle of next year, the top 5 fighters may have all faced each other. Middleweight has always been a division that does far better when unified. Some fighters specialize in division hopping, facing names, whether or not belts are at stake. However, Monzon, Hagler, Hopkins, all added to their fame by being "the man" at 160, and 160 only (until Hopkins moved up). Here is the breakdown of upcoming action, and my predictions.

Sergio Martinez vs. Julio Cesar Chavez
Well, there is at least one fight that has been postponed for years, that the public is finally going to get. Of course, before this was a fight of come-uppance. We all couldn't wait to see Martinez dispose of this nepatism-carried overprotected joke. Now, don't get me wrong, Chavez Jr. has still been guided and matched very carefully. He has also had the benefit of Top Rank, the WBC, and the Texas commission in his back pocket. These corrupt influences gave him the confidence of knowing, like his father before him, that all he had to do was make it to the final bell, and he would be awarded a victory. He will not need to make weight. He will not need to provide urine samples. He lives by different rules than other fighters.

This is why, should Chavez win or lose, I do not want to see him matched with Felix Sturm. How boring of a fight would that be? Two guys who are used to coasting to controversial decision wins? Like watching two aikido masters fighting! However, Chavez has legitimately beaten several middleweight contenders, utilizing different styles as necessary. He has legitimately earned this shot more convincingly that Macklin or Barker.. Martinez's two most recent scalps. However, I don't see this fight going any differently than those two. Martinez hits normally iron chinned fighters in places, and in ways, that makes them more vulnerable. He also finds ways to wear down an opponent without a bruising body attack. I don't know how he does it, but I don't think Chavez knows either. It will be close and interesting, until Martinez turns it on. Don't be surprised if Chavez is controversially ahead on the scorecards, and allowed to recover too long if hurt. It won't matter, however. His own people will pull him out, about round 10 or 11.

Gennady Golovkin vs. Gregorz Proksa
Proksa gets this title shot on Dmitry Pirog's injury (yeah, right), and credit must be given to both men for taking the tough fights, and coming to the USA to do so. I also believe both men have the styles to make this a damned good brawl. Proksa might have been even odds until his recent loss to Kerry Hope (avenged), but I believe, like Andy Lee, we are on the road to seeing a lot of skills that never fully develop. Golovkin has too much at stake here, namely, unification matches with the winners of two other big fights that month. Proksa will make it intersting while it lasts, but barring a style nightmare that I have not analyzed yet, I see Golovkin the winner by 8th round TKO.

Daniel Geale vs. Felix Sturm
This fight was also supposed to take place in the USA, but you're dreaming if you think Felix Sturm will ever do that again. Like a traumatized child who abuses everyone else in adulthood, Sturm is going to punish every opponent he faces with corrupt officiating, in retaliation for his fight with De La Hoya in 2004. Geale, however, has done this before, overcoming the most corrupt promoter in boxing, Wilfried Sauerland, to win his belt from Sebastian Sylvester. Does he have the golden touch that prevents people from screwing him? Not exactly. In his own country, he was screwed against Anthony Mundine... a proven coward who has run from decent competition ever since. I think the inevitable is that Geale will box the socks off of an aging Sturm. Yet, Sturm will cover up well, as he always does, and give two judges (that he hired) an excuse to give him the fight. Sturm by controversial decision.

Chris Strait
www.convictedartist.com