MMA is set to make its prime time return to network TV in the highly anticipated heavyweight match up between pound for pound king Fedor Emelianenko and rising up and comer Brett Rogers. The two men share similar records never suffering official loses in their careers. Will the myth and legend that is Fedor finally be broken by the hungry Minnesota native Brett Rogers who is ready to ascend to the heavyweight throne. Or will the legend and mystique of the man simply known as Fedor continue to grow after Saturday into the annals of history as arguable the greatest mixed martial artist to have ever lived? Well fighting is a science, though a unpredictable one at best, but we have went ahead and broken down this blockbuster fight into eleven categories so that you the reader can better decide which of these two heavyweight fighters will come out on top!
Speed: Though both fighters are not the fastest in their division, we have plenty of footage to see how quick each opponent is. Brett Rogers is obviously the slower of the two fighters. What he lacks in speed he makes up in power, as after five missed swings to the chin of Arolvski he was finally able to connect on the sixth one. You have to give the pound for pound heavyweight champion the nod in this area. All you have to do is refer back to his victories over Tim Sylvia and Andrei Arlovski to see that Fedor’s speed is deceiving and he has the ability to hit you in a spilt second.
Advantage: Fedor
Punching Power: It’s safe to say that either of these fighters can knock you out with one hit. Both fighters only needed one shot in their common opponent that was Andrei Arlovski, though I’d like to add that Rogers KO was quicker. So looking at both fighters past records we can get a gauge on a few things. Fedor has seven knockouts in his thirty bouts as a fighter. Though Rogers has only had ten fights, all have come by way of knockout. He has a 100% knockout ratio and that’s something that Rogers can be extremely confident about when it comes to his hands in this bout.
Advantage: Rogers
Ground Game: Yea this is a no brainer. Have we ever seen Brett Rogers on the ground or attempt a submission in his ten fights? This is the one weakness that is obvious even to the casual mma observer. Fedor has legendary ground skills. If you go to the ground with Fedor your getting submitted, no if’s and’s or but’s. Sixteen of Fedor’s thirty bouts have come via submission accounting for just about half of his fights. When you have submission victories over Tim Sylvia, Matt Lindland, Mark Hunt, Mark Coleman, Kevin Randleman and Kazuyuki Fujita not to mention Sambo World Championships to back that resume, it would be smart for Rogers not to force this one on the ground.
Advantage: Fedor
Conditioning: When breaking this aspect of a fight down you have the clearest indication of how a fighters conditioning is by his past fights. Problem is, Rogers fights haven’t gone past the ten minute mark. Shoot, on average they haven’t even gone past four minutes! So this ones a real wild card when it comes to Rogers. If we take a look at Fedor, he has gone the distance many times over with world class caliber fighters such as: Cro-cop, Nogueira, Semmy Schilt and Babalu to name a few. In all these fights, Fedor has slowed down, but not as much as his competition has. It may have something to do with the elevation of the mining town of Stary Oskol, but Fedor has been taken into deep waters and survived, Rogers hasn’t up to this point in his career.
Advantage: Fedor
Fortitude: What is Fortitude? Well I can give you a cliché response and go quote a dictionary but that’s lame. Fortitude is having balls. It’s getting the crap kicked out of you and still being able to push forward. It’s the ability and the drive to keep going when you feel like you have gone to that deep dark place every man experiences. Both men have a certain degree of fortitude; they get hit in the face and kicked in the ribs for a living. At this point in his career though Rogers hasn’t been through what Fedor has or been in a situation in which he was badly hurt and managed to somehow pull through. In his fight with Fujita, Fedor was hit by a wild right hook that had him in lala land for a brief few seconds. In his fight with Randleman, Fedor somehow survived a huge wwf-esqe power bomb and managed to win that fight as well. Fedor’s been through some battles and he has taken some good shots and somehow survived. This guy is like the Terminator, you could probably hit him with a shovel and in about five seconds time it would be shoved up your ass.
Advantage: Fedor
Versatility: This category can be viewed in two different perspectives all encompassed as a whole. Which of the two has more in their arsenal to overwhelm the other opponent and which of the two is able to adapt inside the cage when their game plan is out the window? When Rogers fought Josh Thompson in the now defunct Elite XC, he showed that he was more than a slugger, displaying good clinch and takedown defense. In his fight with Abongo, Rogers displayed great clinch work landing huge knees that eventually led to the end of the fight. But really now, there’s no way you can compare this to Fedor’s versatility. He can beat you standing, he can beat you on the ground, and he can beat you in takedowns. Though we haven’t seen Fedor use clinch work in recent memory, when you take a look at how diverse his win resume is, its fairly obvious who the more versatile fighter is.
Advantage: Fedor
Consistency: So now we come down to the aspect of who has kept the best form in their fights up to this point. Let me be the first to say that Fedor hasn’t looked like the unbeatable force he was in Pride as of lately. His fight with Arlovski made Fedor look very vulnerable, something that we as fans are not accustomed to. Though up until the Arlovski fight, Fedor was displaying the form the made him jump to mythic status in Pride. Rogers on the other hand, has continued to get better and better after every fight. He has consistently looked better and finished his opponents in impressive fashion with the Arlovski fight as the crystal piece.
Advantage: Rogers
X-Factor: So who holds the X-factor in this fight? That unforeseen advantage that is not made visible till after the fight is over? Roger’s X-factor can be seen that he is hungrier and has more to prove than Fedor. Going from tire technician to CBS headliner is more than enough to motivate someone to never again go back to his old occupation. Not to mention the fact that Rogers is fighting to keep a family dream alive. Having bought his first house with the win over Arlovski, this fight has to have Rogers motivated to want to keep the harsh reality of poverty a safe distance away. One interesting thing to add onto Rogers’s x-factor is that this fight is taking place in a cage. The last few people from Pride that have made a transition from ring to cage have had a difficult time, citing that it has been harder condition wise on them. With this being his debut in a cage, will it affect Fedor? Does Fedor even have an X-factor? Up until this point it was his aura of invulnerability. The closest thing to compare to this was the aura Mike Tyson had in his prime. Rogers has made it a point to say that Fedor is just a man, but this will remain to be seen.
Advantage: Rogers
Experience: I should probably delete this column, but for prosperity sake I had to put it in. I need to fill in space for this damn thing right? All jokes aside, when you compare someone who has had ten fights, and one opponent who is world class against someone who has had thirty fights, gone undefeated for seven years or so and has beaten five former UFC heavyweight champions. There’s no substitutive for that. Fedor has seen things in a ring and cage that even someone with a full ten year career in MMA has not seen. He’s fought the best, been hit by the best and has lasted the test of time.
Advantage: Fedor
Striking technique: So whose technique reigns supreme? Whose technique is better suited for the clutch win? For one, Fedor has heat seeking missiles for fists. I wish there was data on his percentage when connecting on opponents, but I would anticipate it to be high. He doesn’t throw any un-needed punches and pot shots ala Roy Jones Jr. He can hit you from any angle and be effective; case in point his mid air knock out of Andrei Arlovski. Though Rogers has heavy hands, his technique still has a ways to go as we have seen Fedor knock people out with a variety of punches as opposed to Rogers, who has been knocking people out with that big right hook/upper of his. Fedor’s just way to accurate and sleek when it comes to this department
Advantage: Fedor
Take downs/Take down and throw defense: Man, this seems like a difficult task to take any of these two guys down. In one corner you have a huge mass of corn fed man in Brett Rogers, weighing in at two hundred and sixty five pounds. In the other corner you have a multiple times judo and sambo world champion. Thing with Fedor is when you are able to get a hold of him; he throws you in a blink of a eye. Fedor has had trouble in this department with opponents that have outweighed him. In his fight with Mark Hunt, Fedor was often not able to fully execute his throws and as a result ended up himself being on the ground in really bad position. This had much do to with the heavy hips and weight of Mark Hunt. Besides this, Fedor for the most part is the one doing the majority of throwing and in a spilt second has the ability to reverse a takedown attempt with a counter throw. Rogers on the other hand hasn’t showed skills in takedowns and throws in the clinch, but why would you when you’re as big as him. In his fights with Josh Thomson and Ron Humphrey, both opponents realized the importance of keeping Rogers off his feet. Both opponents failed as the heavy hips of Rogers helped him avoid being taken down or thrown. If you refer back to the Hunt fight though, it’s a safe bet that Fedor is going to have initial trouble in taking Rogers down.
Advantage: Equal advantage for both fighters
Category Advantages for Fedor: 7
Category Advantages for Rogers: 3
Editors Prediction: On the surface this would be an easy one to call, according to this fight dissection Fedor has the obvious advantage and should easily win. I have a conflict inside when deciding on a winner. My gut is telling me by some miracle Rogers is going to knock out Fedor. As ludicrous as it may sound to some people, all Rogers needs is one punch to do it. Fedor has never faced anyone as aggressive and heavy handed as Brett Rogers. When he did fight someone who was aggressive and pushed him forward (Arlovski) Fedor did seem to be genuinely uncomfortable. If Rogers is going to pull the upset it’s going to be with in the first two minutes of the fight. Now aside from what my gut is telling me, my head says Fedor is going to pull this one out in the second round via submission or TKO. The first round will play out with Rogers rushing in with punches and Fedor clinching and attempting the takedown. They will more than likely break and Rogers will come rushing in again. I think Rogers will slow down and be more cautious and the rest of the round we will see both fighters landing the occasional shots here and there. In Round two I think both fighters will turn it up and at some point Fedor will be able to get Rogers on his back en route to a submission or a TKO stoppage from above. I can be wrong though, most of us writers usually are, but this is one night in which I hope I’m right. I’d like for the sport of mma to have that one guy, this mythical figure that went through a whole career undefeated. So that ten years from now, we can all say, wow Fedor was more than god he was great, that I lived in a time in which I had the privilege of seeing such a great fighter fight. Win or lose though, ten years from now though I think we will still be saying Fedor was great.
