Convicted Artist Magazine

Oct 17th
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boxing_imageDavid Haye vs. Vladimir Klitschko
Perhaps my acknowledging it with a prediction is a bad omen.  Boxing fans are crossing their fingers for this bout to actually come off.  I believe that it will this time, if only because of David Haye’s attempt at a master plan.  He wishes to beat both Klitschko brothers by his 31st birthday in October (Should he upset Wladimir, I think Tomasz Adamek can kiss his Sept 25 date with Vitali goodbye).  I think that plan will be derailed however.  An upset would not be unprecedented.  Many other fighters earned shots with their mouths, and still delivered when fight time came (Clay vs. Liston1, and Leonard vs. Hagler).  However, David Haye does legitmitaely have a bad chin.  Klitschko’s losses are not due to a bad chin, but bad stamina, which he has corrected.  Only his loss to Sanders was from power punches, and while Haye hits hard, he does not hit as hard as Sanders.  Also, Haye is facing a defensive minded Wlad, and will have difficulty being the first to land big shots.  If Haye presses the action, he may have some success, but he will be Ko’d within 3 rounds.  If he boxes cautiously, he may last, but will gradually fall way behind.  This will force desperation, and get him Ko’d in round 10 or 11.  Either way you slice it, Wladimir by KO.

Amir Khan vs. Zab Judah
Let’s face it.  This fight is low-risk, high-reward for Khan.  The Bradley fight was one which Khan had a very real chance of losing.  Judah, who has always failed at the highest level, will fail again.  He got a belt, the IBF… which is passed around frequently through vacancies at 140lbs.  That is the sole reason we have been fooled into believing he is vital again.  Judah will be competitive for the first few rounds, but Khan will build a lead in the middle rounds.  Amir will probably not step on the gas, to give Judah his only shot.  Khan by wide unanimous decision, or late round TKO.

Paul Williams vs. Erislandy Lara
So much for the upset.  Carlos Molina is being rewarded for his draw with Erislandy Lara, by facing Kermit Cintron, while Lara gets Paul Williams.  Draws seem to be the way fighters move up nowadays, as it has certainly worked to get big fights for Victor Ortiz and Shane Mosley.  If Lara was still the glittering prospect, I doubt he'd be getting this chance.  It feels weird to say that, because Williams and Cintron have previously been the types to fight anyone.  Recent vulnerabilities may change that.  Lara still has some hype behind him, but certainly it is diminished after Molina held him to a draw.  But Molina is a damned good fighter, who beat JC Chavez Jr. (even if the judges didn’t score it that way).  I think the matchmaking is bad for Lara, however, and unless Williams is a shell of his former self, he should overwhelm Lara and stop him late.  Although, you never know how someone will come back after a loss like the one Williams had to Martinez

Danny Green vs. Antonio Tarver

This one is very tough to call.  Green is the same guy who was outboxed by Anthony Mundine.  Yet he did starch Roy Jones and Paul Briggs in one round apiece.  Green has been calling out the American old farts of late, and if he can get his hands on a meaningful Cruiser belt, he may even entice Hopkins .  This means he has a lot of motivation, but Tarver is not likely to be KO’d, nor is he likely to look as lazy as he did at heavyweight.  This is probably what he should weigh, but at 43 years old, you never know when he is gonna get old in one night.  Gut instinct says it will be a close distance fight, in which Green pulls it out.  It may even be controversial, as Tarver has had problems with that before.  This is also in Green's home country.  Green by narrow, majority decision.

Marco Huck vs. Hugo Garay

Huck has looked vulnerable, and Garay came close to beating Zsolt Erdei in Germany … which probably means he did.  That is the only reason this fight makes the prediction list.  Sauerland can etase all they ant about Huck and Cunngham in an Cruiser Super Six, but after their fighters did not fare will in the 168lbs, they are hesitatnt to make the same risk with their two Cruiser cash cows… especially when the American entries would be dangerous, and have no fans (BJ Flores, Lateef Kayode, Ryan Coyne).  Garay is a live underdog, but Huck’s power should make the difference.  Garay will show toughness, but will eventually be worn down to a close decision loss.

Tyson Fury vs. Derek Chisora
This is where we can finally expose one of the British heavyweights for being a fraud.  Chisora was in no way deserving of a fight with Wladimir Klitschko, but it was not right to tease him that way.  This means he will be highly motivated against Tyson Fury.  Fury has actually managed to expose himself while winning.  He is a big lumbering giant, who has an 86-inch reach.  He is completely ineffective on the inside, with those long arms providing no torque.  Yet, he labors there often, because dancing and boxing expends even more energy.  He has shown a good chin thus far, and does have some skills, but against journeyman opposition, he has already needed help.  I expect this to be the fight where Fury implodes.  Chisora will likely do so in his next fight.  Chisora by decision or late round TKO.

Victor Cayo vs. Lamont Peterson
Lamont Peterson did not do much more than lose competitively to Voctor Ortiz and timothy Bradley, but that determination and self-belief may be all it takes to beat Victor Cayo.  Cayo looked good for a few rounds against Maidana, but who doesn’t?  He imploded the quickest as easiest of all of “ Chino ”s opponents, and that means he is not likely to provide Peterson with much resistance.  The D.C. native is not the puncher that Maidana is, so we will watch as Peterson gradually takes the fight over, and boxes hsiw ay to a wide unanimous decision victory.  I’m sure the IBF will quickly strip whoever wins Judah vs. Khan (they always do), so maybe Peterson will get a belt after all.

Chris Strait

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