It seems like as a good of a time as any to analyze the Berto-Mayweather match-up. Most fans, including myself, would have preferred a fight with Bradley, Thurman, or even Khan. However, recent competition levels of those men are not exactly exciting, and they refuse to face each other. Rather, they are waiting in line for the Mayweather sweepstakes. Now that it looks to be Mayweather's last fight, some of them are starting to negotiate to face each other. Pacquiao may face Khan, and now Brook may be facing Bradley. Gracia and Thurman seem to not be headed togetehr, but I hope I am wrong.
Mayweather makes the point that like Khan, who many fans wanted to see him fight, is no different than Berto. Certainly, he does have a case. Berto and Khan both are two time champions with 3 losses, and have had to rebuild from problems outside the ring as well. However, Khan brings a more impressive resume of late, as well as his own major fan base. It seemed to make more sense than facing a man coming off a controversial stoppage win over a glorified journeyman in Josesito Lopez. However, Khan's 3 losses were a bad decision, and two early KO losses. Berto's 3 losses were in fight of the year candidates, 2 by decision, and one by controversial stoppage in a fight he was winning. Also, 2 of the men who beat Berto were awarded shots at Floyd immediately thereafter.
However, The logic really seems to be that he just had what was supposed to be his hardest fight in Pacquiao (it wasn't), so he should get one of his easiest as a farewell. Add to that, the personal life issues of a man approaching 40, who fights exclusively off of his reflexes. Floyd is watching his uncle die a painfully slow death from diabetes, and it looks like the ravages of boxing have reared their ugly heads, too. Roger is having memory problems, now. However, Floyd has barely been hit, compared to many brutal KO losses for Roger (Chavez twice, Pineda, Lockridge, etc.), but he does seem to have the same diet problems that led his father and uncle to premature disease, as well as their genetics. Therefore, his fear is quite founded.
Due to these realities, Mayweather has gotten a ton more careful in recent fights, to the point where casual fans are forgetting that Mayweather used to engage in many exciting scraps. Perhaps he thinks that Berto will provide excitement, without really threatening to win, as he did against Guerrero. I agree with this assessment. Berto's chin has never been bad, but it is getting worse, and is ripe for the plucking... giving Floyd the chance to score a KO, or at least knockdowns. He will also be going against a quick handed counter-puncher who doesn't present the same offensive threat that Khan's fists would. I feel that Berto will remain on his feet, more from a result of Mayweather's lack of killer instinct than anything else. Berto will mix it up, win a few rounds, then get dominated, until his corner or the doctor stops it from a badly swollen eye. Mayweather by 9th round TKO.
Chris Strait
www.convictedartist.com