Lucien Bute vs. Glen Johnson
This is one is not tough to call.  If you’re for real, you beat Johnson.  If you’re not, you don’t.  Bute has already proven he is for real.  The questions that remain are of chin and stamina.  These have not been tested since the first Andrade fight, since Bute has been so dominant and powerful of late.  Johnson will provide a test for both of those attributes, while still putting a W on Bute ’s record.  Bute by an 8-4 decision that may be scored even wider.

Timothy Bradley vs. Joel Casamayor
Casamayor vs. Bradley? This one will be dirty.  The old tricks are among the last things to go, and Casamayor will need them.  He may have found new legs recently, but it won’t be enough to take out a determined Bradley.  Unless “Desert Storm has garnered some serious ring rust, we can expect him to dominate the old Cuban champion.  While a knockout wouldn’t surprise me, I will never pick one with Bradley… Bradley by UD or late round TD.

Danny Green vs,. Krystoff Wlodarczyk
These last two fights are shameful, because a fighter is being rewarded for a loss with a shot at a belt.  Shame on the WBC for both of them.  Tarver and Molina should be fighting for titles, not Cintron and Green.  Yet in a belt that has recently added diamond, emeritus, silver, interim, and in-recess to their vocabulary, nothing is surprising.  I would normally pick the Pole to retain his title, since Green is coming off a bad beating, but he’s such a pretender to the throne, that I cannot in good consciousness pick him. 

James Toney vs. Denis Lebedev
Well, for all Roy Jones has slipped, he still has a bizarre hold over past opponents.  Once Roy holds a win over you, even if you go on to achieve your own greatness, you never seem to forget it, and end up chasing a ghost.  Hopkins , Tarver, and now Toney… all chasing either Jones himself, or other Jones conquerors.  To prove what?  I am not sure.  Toney might just be trying to prove he can still make Cruiserweight.  Toney vs. Tarver would be a fun fight at any weight, and the winner might sneak into a title shot at Cruiser or Heavy.  Toney would earn a number 1 ranking with the win, but my gut tells me this is the fight where he ages too much.  Lebedev by narrow UD.

Alfredo Angulo Vs. James Kirkland
Many people think this fight would have been more impressive before Angulo’s loss to Cintron, and subsequent exile.  It definitely would have been better before Kirkland was imprisoned, then KO’d in the first round by light-hitting Noburo Ishida, right?  I disagree. This is one of those fights that will actually be even better because both men have something to prove.  Trainer and promoter difficulties, losses, exiles for different reasons, etc.  The 154-160 landscape has moved on without them to create ‘Viva Mexico ’ stars, but are both still wide open besides them.  Neither man would beat Sergio Martinez, but they are live with anyone else.  Their recent losses will also make them more marketable to avoidance-monsters like Alvarez and Chavez Jr.  Any pick would be logical here, because each man will be forced out of a comfort zone.  However, my guess is, much like Rios-Antillon, it’s going to come down to chin.  Angulo has one.  Kirkland doesn’t.  Angulo by 4th round KO in a wild slugfest.

Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Manny Pacquiao 3
The third installment of this trilogy isn’t coming too late chronologically, as it’s only been 7 years since the first match-up, yet as far as what has transpired in the interim, the two are worlds apart. 

With the dominance of the Klitschkos, the heavyweight division is running out of worthy challengers.  Not only are fighters losing to Vitali and Wlad, they are doing so in such a way, that their credibility is shot for quite a while.  Their are some tournaments going on to establish new challengers, but they are mostly being done with the wrong contenders.  What has Dimnitrenko done to deserve inclusion?  And don't get me started on Jonathon Banks and Jean-Marc Mormeck... men with chin problems at cruiserweight!  Let's do a tournament the right way... MY WAY!

Cris Arreola vs. Eddie Chambers
They are both still in ESPN's bottom of the top ten.  While they are both vital contenders, they have already lost to a Klitschko, which renders them much less interesting.  However, if Haye gets another shot, so do they.  Chambers counterpunching skills make him a live underdog, but after suffering his first knockout to Wladimir, we know what can happen if his temple gets tagged, which Arreola will do, repeatedly, no matter how sloppy it looks.  Arreola by late round TKO.

WBA
What if your “super champion” is called such because he owns the WBA and IBF belts.  Then, the IBF strips him (which happens a lot).  Is he still a super champion?  What if you’ve already crowned a “regular” champion in his absence?  Does that guy get stripped, or demoted to “interim”?  What if you already have a super champion, and your regular champion also unifies with another belt holder?  Do you now have 2 super champions?  Would you still crown yet a 3rd “regular” champion?  Are any of these champions mandated to ever fight each other?  What about Chris John and Yuriorkis Gamboa?  Are they ever going to be forced to fight?  And if Gamboa was the most recent one to unify, why is he not the super champion?  What about Felix Sturm?  I don’t recall him unifying at all.

WBC
Timothy Bradley and Sergio Martinez are “emeritus” champions, correct?  Therefore, they may come back whenever, no matter what is going on the division, and challenge your current WBC champion for their belt.  What about the new regular belt-holder’s mandatory?  Is he still next in line for the winner?  Does he fight for a “silver” title?  If so, is he still in line, or does this consolation prize belt mean the champions are exempt from fighting them?  What the hell is a “diamond” belt?  If you are a Mexican with a star name or billing, are you just handed a WBC belt for your lineage?

IBF
Is there any circumstance for which a champion may be temporarily exempt from a mandatory?  Or do you just strip your new champion every six months, regardless of what kind of better offers they receive?  Are unified champions ever given a chance to defend against the other sanctioning body’s mandatory?  If not, why even bother allowing unifications?  Bravo to allowing Wladimir Klitschko to get away with it for this long, but we have a feeling the useless mandatory you’re about to saddle him with, will put an end to all of that.  Clock is ticking on Amir Khan’s new belt, too.

Floyd Mayweather vs. Victor Ortiz – Ortiz has barely gotten to enjoy anything he has accomplished in boxing before he gets knocked down a peg.  He was barely an unbeaten prospect, when a bizarre dq ended that run.  He was barely the next great Mexican-American star, when Marcos Maidana derailed him.  Now, he will get to enjoy being WBC Welterweight champion for a whopping 5 months.  Granted he will be paid very well to surrender the belt to Floyd, but that is just what he will do.  Ortiz is tough, skilled, and might buzz Floyd occasionally with a straight left, yet he may not win a round.  His heart will not come into question, as Mayweather’s backward moton will make it look as if Ortiz is trying.  The ‘Vicious’ one will gradually be worn down, however, and perhaps even stopped.  Gut instinct tells me, that Floyd won’t press the issue enough to score the KO.  Mayweather by wide unanimous decision.

Saul Alvarez vs. Alfonso Gomez
Well, I guess the next step in building a contender into a star without him actually facing any threatening competition, is the perennial contender who occasionally pulls off an upset.  They are not about to risk Erislandy Lara or Carlos Molina for young “Canelo”, but Gomez is the perfect foil.  He is another Mexican, who is popular in Los Angeles .  Gomez also is an exciting fighter who will not run, but who also has a good jab.  He will test Canelo, but not beat him.  Gomez would have to fight the perfect fight, and not get caught, or busted up.  Highly unlikely, given the increasingly good offensive skills of the young Mexican.  Gomez’ toughness does, however, almost guarantee another decision win for Alvarez.

I didn’t get a chance to make an official prediction here, as the fight was thrown together in less than two months time.  I am glad that it was, as I think the lead time most fights endure is not necessary.  Now I will join the tradition most fight writers engage in… making a detailed analysis the week of a fight.

Just when you think Zab Judah will not get any more chances, he does.  I find it odd that Shane Mosley has a handful of upsets to his credit, yet is doubted for attempting another.  Surely, he did not give a good account of himself against either Mayweather or Pacquiao, but those are the two best fighters in the world.  He has a history of fooling us, yet is not given the benefit of the doubt that he may do so once more.  Judah has no such history, yet keeps getting chances.

Other than winning 2 of the first 4 rounds from Mayweather, and avenging a defeat to Cory Spinks, has Judah ever really surprised us?  If so, he surprised us by losing.  His close shave with Lucas Matthysse is looking all the more forgiveable now that Devon Alexander had the same difficulties with the Argentinian. However, his win over Mabuza was not that impressive, given the competition, yet we are ready to anoint a second coming for the Brooklyn native.  Judah is a solid fighter, and legitimate former champion of the world, who loses against the hall-of-famers he fights.  So, why the excessive love?

Punchers are born, not made.  We hear this all the time.  Perhaps this is true, but one glance at many a fighters record will confuse any fan who buys into this.  Some fighters start out as punchers, then stop (Paulie Malingaggi KO’d his first 3 opponents, Pernell Whittaker 6 of his first 7, etc).  Others develop their power slowly.  Some blame this on “sitting down” on punches, as one transitions to a pro style from an amateur style.  Others cite confidence.  Let’s look at 3 modern examples:

Diego Magdaleno – The most recent entry into this list may not look like he belongs yet.  At first glance, 7 KO’s in 19 wins does not a puncher make.  However, when one sees that 4 of those have come in his last 4 fights, it looks a bit more impressive.  Add to that, the fact that they have come early, he looks a bit more powerful.  Then the final ingredient appears in the form of his knockouts coming as he is stepping up in class.  Funny thing is his other 3 KO’s happened in his first 6 fights... so the amateur style is not to blame.  Perhaps it’s just a matter developing his confidence.

Robert Guerrero – One of the most physically strong featherweights in the last 20 years, Guerrero has grown into a full lightweight, who is now making his debut at 140lbs.  People who are fans of the Gilroy , CA native’s recent fights, however, may be surprised to know that only 3 of his first 12 fights ended by KO.  He followed this up with a tear of first round KO’s, meaning once he had sat down on his punches, his powerful style soon developed.  That early run of distance fights, however, is to thank for his ability to box, and go the distance with confidence.

Abner Mares vs. Joseph Agbeko
A fight I believe will be well worth the wait, it is one of those where betting hearts and heads will be pitted against one another.  Both fighters have shown the ability to box or slug, and be different fighters on different nights.  The difference is Agbeko’s slight experience edge, as well as his superior skin and chin.  Mares doesn’t exactly have a major deficiency in those areas, but he is average.  Agbeko is unhurtable.  Mares will have to fight the perfect fight, both inside and out.  This is not out of the realm of possibility, and for the future of the division, it may be a better thing.  Mares is very marketable due to his heritage, promoter, location, age, and style.  Agbeko enjoys virtually none of those advantages.  However, the winner is the logical opponent for Nonito Donaire.  This is a fight that will happen if Mares wins; not necessarily if Agbeko wins.  There are so many reasons to hope Abner pulls it off, but hope does not equal expectations.  Agbeko by unanimous decision… in a fight where Mares hangs tough, and shows heart to make it to the final bell.

Kelly Pavlik vs. Daryl Cunningham
This is not a great fight for Pavilk.  He won without looking impressive last time out, and he needs a talented, yet vulnerable opponent to get us talking about him again.  This is not that fight.  Cunningham is not a puncher, but a southpaw boxer, who has two decision losses early in his career to unimpressive opposition.  His best win is a shutout decision over former title challenger Rubin Williams.  He will likely box well until Pavlik traps him and unloads.  Once again Pavlik will win, but look awkward and slow until he either takes over with aggression, or lands a big shot.  Pavlik by late-round TKO.

So, Floyd Mayweather is taking on Victor Ortiz.  I, for one, am actually glad this fight is taking place.  While I think Mayweather-Martinez would have been more historic, and pushed Mayweather past Pacquiao in the respect category, this fight still does make sense.  For those of you saying that Ortiz is getting this shot as much for his deficiencies, as he is for his strengths, I would say there is some truth to that.  However, a look at fighter’s records is a bit misleading here.

Certainly there is no comparison in the experience category.  This is Ortiz’s first recognizable belt.  Mayweather has won them in 5 weight divisions.  For those looking at unbeaten records, however, things are not as they seem.  A further analysis is necessary.  Mayweather is legitimately unbeaten, but his fights with Castillo and De La Hoya were certainly close, and perhaps may have gone the other way.  Ortiz, on the other hand, has not had the best luck.

Disqualified in his first loss, for a shady ‘Evander Holyfield in the 1984 Olympics’ style technicality, he lost his unbeaten record young.  His first draw was also in the first round, and of the technical variety.  Most people had him winning the Peterson draw, and he was ahead on all cards, having scored 3 knockdowns, when eye injuries forced him out of his fight with Maidana.  Everyone was so distracted by his unfighter-like comments after the Maidana loss, that we forgot what had transpired prior.

Lucas Matthysse is not nearly the victim he is making himself out to be.  Sure, he is doing a great job of selling the idea that he was robbed against Judah and Alexander, but let’s look at these fights objectively.  In both cases, he took rounds off when he could ill afford to.  He was cleanly outboxed in at least 1/3 of the rounds.  He has no jab, swings wildly, tries to steal rounds in the last 30 seconds, and has lousy defense.  A guy like that is never gonna look like he is dominating someone.  Also, while he may score the occasional knockdown; much like his countryman Maidana, if he cannot shorten up the punches, he is not going to stop anyone at this level.  Maidana vs. Matthysse is one of the best fights to be made in boxing.  However, that is due to their shortcomings, as much as their strengths.

Speaking of shortcomings, Guillermo Jones should just retire  Fabrice Tiozzo did the honorable thing when promoters could not get him fights.  He was incredulous that he had a title, and could not get a fight.  Therefore, he walked away.  Jones finally got two fights scheduled within the same calendar year, and he has an injury.  Just walk away, “Felino”.   You’re in your late thirties, won a belt, made some money, and had a hometown defense.  Anything more is just not meant to be.

June 24th, 2011 was Friday Fight Night at the Don Haskins Center. The featured bout was David Rodriguez Versus Owen Beck for the FeComBox Heavyweight Championship. The promotion entailed too much waste of time.

I don’t feel as if it’s a bad thing at all that Saul Alvarez is being brought along slowly.  He probably doesn’t deserve to be paid as much as he is to do so, but that’s the nature of fame in any business.  It is only a problem, if his record is being padded for money, and not for development.  I think he looked great against Ryan Rhodes, because he showed improvement in every category in which he had been criticized.

Yes, he only got the stoppage in a technical fashion, but did he really need to prove his power?  Knocking out iron-chinned Carlos Baldomir with one punch pretty much is the last test your power should ever have to take.  The areas of improvement left to see are: can he handle a slick boxer, and can he mix his offense and defense well, when another puncher is willing to trade with him.  He is almost 21 years old, and to be honest, a loss would do him good.  Look at how well Victor Ortiz has recovered.  Here are the most likely candidates to hand Alvarez that loss at 154lbs:

Paul Williams – Not the perfect opponent for Alvarez in any other way except that a loss to Williams would be highly forgiveable.  Depending on how well Williams does against Lara, it may not even be a fight Alvarez would lose.  He has the punch to hurt ‘The Punisher’.  We know that now, but he’s certain to look awful until he starts landing, and maybe even after.

It is with deep sadness and a broken heart that I write this article, in my years of writing I have written tributes and articles about the passing of people in and around the boxing world, but never in a million years could I ever have imagined that I would be paying tribute to my best friend Bob “Scooter” Carroll.

I met Bob about four or five years ago (cannot pinpoint the date because speaking with Bob one hour felt like you knew him an eternity), but I was working publicity for then heavyweight contender Brian Minto when Bob submitted a request to have Minto on his radio show Fightin’ Words Radio. As usual I botched the request so Minto’s manager took care of that, but I began speaking with Bob and he asked me to come on the show with he and Butch. I did so thinking it would be a one time deal and be done with it. But it turned out to be a life changing event that has been going on for several years now.

It was more than a radio show; it was the beginning of a bonding friendship that even death cannot break.

Ok, for the ones who are saying, who is Bob?

No he was not a heavyweight champion, this big time portrait in boxing, but he was one of the best friends that a guy could ever have. A born bread Philly fan that stayed true to his teams win lose or draw. Bob was also a long time fan of the sport of Boxing. His love as well as my passion brought us together, now our opinions on which “America’s Football Team” was, that was a bit different. Bob stayed true to his Philly roots and I stuck with mine as a Dallas Cowboy fan. Man, the debates we would have!

Boxing has been living on the outskirts of sporting fame for a few decades now.  This is a sad truth that while one star usually makes it to the mainstream (one at a time anyway), most members of the general public cannot name more than 3 active boxers, if that.  The abandonment of network television is the biggest culprit, alongside the disappearing act of the U.S. heavyweight.  While many theories are given as to the reason for this, I can trace it all back to four very important events.  Oddly enough, all of them took place 29 years ago.

Muhammad Ali Showing Wear and Tear
Not only did we have to lose him in the ring, but 1982 was the first year where we really got to see that we were slowly losing him on the microphone as well.  He’d always been slowing, and people close to Ali knew for years, but the permanence of his damage was becoming obvious.  The absence of the voice of boxing was perhaps more damaging than his retirement, as we can assume many people would tune into fights just to hear him speak.  He is still the most recognizable personality in the world, without the benefit of sound bites. We needed this in 1982, because faces and voices were disappearing fast, like…

The knockout mesmerizes people.  It is often the only way a boxer can enter the general sports highlight reels on news channels.  Sergio Martinez winning a close one over Paul Williams would have made a nice story of revenge, but we’d all be talking trilogy.  Instead, because 'Maravilla' flattened a previously rock-chinned opponent, he made everyone’s p4p lists, while Williams has dropped out of sight.  While Manny Pacquiao and Andre Ward’s recent victories have signaled an end to the string of upsets, they have not set the sporting world on fire.

Andre Ward has won 4 times in dominating fashion, since entering the Super Six tournament.  On 3 of those 4 occasions he faced a fighter with a very good chin, so the decision wins are piling up.  On the other, however, he could not put a weakened Allan Green away.  He was also recently criticized for not stepping on the gas to take out Arthur Abraham.  Pacquiao too, has had trouble with defensive minded fighters feeling his power and going into survival mode.  Now, are we to blame their extraordinary talent, combined with the lack of heart of today’s challengers?  Perhaps, but the “good enough” mentality may turn out to fall well short of enough, if we want to make true stars out of fighters.

Congratulations to Bob Arum and company for fooling me.  Not that I am surprised by Pacquiao’s decision win over Shane Mosley.  In fact, it was my pick.  But the doubts your promotion intended to put into my mind were there.  Pacquiao has proven time and again that he causes even the most skilled, and/or durable fighters to think twice about trading with him.  What he does is amazing, and so what are his future plans?

Arum is not saying the F-word (Floyd), because he thinks he is such a great promoter that he can make everyone forget about the most important fight in the world.  You know, the one fight where’d he have to share the pie?  Arum, listen to me.  All of your work will go out the window if the big fight is not made.  You will be remembered as the man whose ego cost the world one of the greatest matchups of all time.  Second to Floyd’s ego that is… but Manny will never come off looking like the bad guy on the Top Rank side of the argument.  You will.

All the great promotion you have done in your career will be forgotten.  You need to grovel, beg, and plead for the Mayweather fight.  Floyd’s reputation cannot get any worse.  His un-beaten record is all he has.  He’d rather miss this fight.  Pacquiao needs it.  He is a star right now, but the question marks about Mayweather will be what people will remember, because his recent fights have been so unmemorable.  He also has no such risk of losing an unbeaten record. 

Pulling off an upset win is a big accomplishment for any fighter.  Even when viewed by itself, it’s a grand career achievement.  However, many fans and writers seem to think it is a universal springboard to future success.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  Just ask Zahir Raheem, for example.  Let’s examine a few of the recent surprise winners, and categorize who will really benefit, and who will not.  There are many Middleweights here, I've noticed.

IN
Victor Ortiz – If there is any hiccup in making Pacquiao vs. Mayweather, Ortiz is practically guaranteed one of them.  More than likely Mayweather, who can pick up another green belt, and keep the fight an in-house promotion for Golden Boy.  In fact, that fight may even happen this summer, so as to preserve the winner for a fall date with Manny.  If Mosley pulls off the upset next week, no one wants to see Floyd-Shane 2.  That means Ortiz is the man with the money yet again, as he would likely be Mosley’s next opponent.  Either way, ‘Vicious’ Victor is a much richer man by this time next year.

Marco Antonio Rubio – A huge KO win over David Lemieux poised Rubio for a shot at Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, if Chavez gets the belt from Sebastian Zbik.  Believe it or not, Rubio is the perfect foil for an upset win over Chavez Jr. 

Danny Green vs. Antonio Tarver - Green has shown the ability to be a legend killer.  Tarver, however, is a four-time light heavyweight champion, but not yet a legend.  He has not taken many beatings throughout his career, and after a lackluster showing in his heavyweight debut, he may be right where he belongs at 200lbs.  Green, a former Super Middleweight, is making plenty of money defending a lowly belt in his native Australia .  He is coming off of a medical issue with his abdominal area, and Tarver’s left to the body can be very dangerous.  Green may be protected geographically, but he is not taking any soft touches.  He beat Roy Jones and BJ Flores, neither of which were gimme opponents.  While both Green and Tarver are giant question marks, Tarver’s age seems to be the one extra grain of sand weighing in Green’s favor.  While a one-round blowout is not in order, an impressive decision win for Green is.  Sauerland and Don King aren’t putting any of their belt holders in with this guy, so calling out the elderly Americans may seem to be the best course of action for Green.  Hopkins may come calling next.

Saul Alvarez vs. Ryan Rhodes - They actually dug up the “Spice Boy” for Alvarez?  As if the nickname wasn't clue enough to the last time Rhodes was relevant, this is quite the mismatch.  Rhodes did come back in convincing fashion since his earlier career fizzled, but let’s be honest.  Promoters are in protection-mode with ‘Canelo’ until they can fully develop his talent, and land a big name opponent at 154lbs. 

Yet another great fight is lost to injury.  I am speaking of Joseph Agbeko vs. Abner Mares.  Mares held even with both Darchinyan and Perez, utilizing entirely different styles.  Agbeko himself ahd outboxed Perez in their rematch, while he slugged it out with Perez the first time, as well as Darchinyan.  There were so many interesting questions left unanswered.  Now, it seems to be a bit quiet when discussing a rescheduling of this match.  Forgive me for being pessimistic, as I first believed the injury, but I have questions now.

As far as Joseph Agbeko goes, I’ve had sciatica.  A flare-up usually lasts a week.  Use ice and Advil, and try to alternate walking and lying down.  After that he should be fine, with a few certain yoga stretches to prevent future flare-ups.  If they take any longer than a few days to reschedule this fight, something is fishy, for sure.  Why was this bout not rescheduled immediately?  He may lose a week of training, but that should set the match back no more than 3 weeks.  As far as promotion money goes, it seems the promoters offered no discount to ticket-holders that I am aware of.  Maybe they thought these fights should not be offered together.  Long gone are the days of mega-cards.  Even pay-per-view events rarely offer a championship undercard.

Humberto Soto vs. Urbano Antillon – The rematch of last year’s fight of the year candidate, promises to deliver the aemtype of action, and a similar result.  In fact, the way to an easier night of it for either man, would be for one to deviate from the script, and utlize more defense.  Soto is more capable of that, and may even utilize it early on to gain control, however, one can be certain that it will be ‘bombs away’ more often than not.  These two are far too Mexican to let fans down in that department.  Soto is due to be getting older any day now.  He may only be 30, but 65 fights in 14 years is old, no matter what number you put on it.  Antillon’s only other loss, to Miguel Acosta, also looks quite forgiveable given what Acosta has accomplished since then.  However, something tells me this matchup favors the more experienced Soto, and he will prevail again, by a slightly wider margin.

Sebastian Sylvester vs. Daniel Geale – This bout is for one of the many German-owned straps at Middleweight.  Geale’s only loss was via controversial decision to Anthony Mundine.  Mundine, being the all-talk, no-action pretender he is, of course did not grant a rematch.  Sylvester should already have been deposed, as he lost to Roman Karmazin, only to have the ‘stewed-to-a-perfection’ corruption Sauerland Promotions is known for, rob him of the title. 

As Pacquiao digs up an old, but still dangerous Shane Mosley, while Floyd digs up attorneys, one can only wonder if the “delay of game” the promoters have cooked up to generate more interest has backfired.  There is really no one left for Pacquiao to face, who makes any sense.  Unless Timothy Bradley beats both Amir Khan and Juan Manuel Marquez (not a far-fetched proposition), Pacquiao will have no one his size to tangle with, that will generate public interest.  Mayweather, however, should look in the other direction.  The middleweight championship is now the one thing Manny has not, and will not, attempt to conquer.  Floyd should give it a shot.

Yes, the covnentional wisdom is that Floyd is too small, not apt to take risks, and perhaps never going to fight again ever, much less against anyone other than Pacquiao.  Martinez , in addition, is looking toward the super six at 168, not the mess at 154, after vanquishing its two best players (Williams and Dzinziruk).  However, what both men are looking towards is legacy and money, especially since old age is knocking on the door for both of them.

Manny Pacquiao vs. Shane Mosley – I think the answer to this puzzle lies not in Pacquiao’s recent fights, but in Mosley’s.  Mosley landed a hard right hand to Floyd Mayweather's chin, in round 2 of their bout last year.  He subsequently failed to win one minute of any round thereafter.  Pacquiao is known, even more so than Floyd, for his recuperative powers.  Therefore the question is, how long before Mosley lands?  Then, how badly will it hurt Manny?  Then, if/when he surivives, how one-sided does the fight become?  Shane is a great fighter, but he does what he does.  It either works, or doesn’t.  He will not be able to adjust much.  He can only adjust the tempo.  Mosley has also never reacted well to having a speed deficit, and I think loading up on power shots can only highlight that issue further.  Barring a miracle one-punch knockout, I say it’s fairly even until Mosley connects with a big shot, probably in about round 4.  Then, Pacquiao will wake up, and dominate for the remainder of the fight.  Shane might even bust up for the first time in his career, but will probably make it to the final bell.  Pacquiao by 9-3 or 10-2 unanimous decision.

Andre Ward vs. Arthur Abraham – Abraham is not only coming off two straight Super Six losses, he is coming off dominating losses to two fighters with very different styles.  Ward, on the other hand, is coming off of three consecutive victories.  He won all those fights using very different styles.  He outboxed Kessler, out-fought Green on the inside, and then matched Sakio Bika’s awkwardness.  Abraham’s only prayer is a lucky punch, but Ward makes too few mistakes to give him many opportunities to land it.  Also, he may not have an iron chin, but Ward does not appear to have a weak one, either.  Therefore, Abraham will have to put punches together…

As Pacquiao and Mayweather deal with avoiding each other in different ways, our attention has turned to two far more exciting/explosive/fearless fighters of late.  Pacquiao is on his seniors/already exposed tour, and probably wishing he’d signed with Golden Boy.  There he’d have skipped straight to Mosley while we still gave a damn, and then right into Mayweather.  Two fights, huge money, done! Now, Pacquiao is on this “filling stadiums to watch him carry no hopers” plan that Arum has scheduled.  Mayweather is avoiding fighting altogether, except with his baby’s mama.  Mainstream fans may still be caught up in the question of who is better, who will win… but for the hardcores… we have two new exciting, active, explosive pound-for-pound fighters.  They have left us asking 'Manny and Floyd who'? Unlike Pacquiao and Mayweather, Nonito Donaire and Sergio Martinez fight the best their divisions (and even other divisions) have to offer.  Unlike Pacquiao and Mayweather, they cannot possibly face each other, so when it comes to who is the best between the two of them, the question is left to the experts. The case for Martinez: When it comes to consitent quality of opposition, Martinez has a clear edge.  Donaire has two explosive wins over top quality fighters: Darchinyan and Montiel, but in the 4 years between them, he had trouble securing meaningful fights.  Martinez took on dangerous Kermit Cintron, Paul Williams twice, Pavlik, and Dzindziruk.  That is more championship level fights than most at 154 and 160 will have in their entire career.  I am only talking about Maravilla’s last two years!  He has only one loss in that span, and it was a close one, brutally avenged. 

Roberto Duran - A brutal puncher who scored incredible knockouts as a lightweight champion.  Reigned for over 7 eyars, and many consider him the greatest lightweight of all time.  Moved up two divisions, and while Ray Leonard respected his power, he was unable to drop or even hurt most opponents.  By the time he was a middleweight, he was a distance fighter near;y every time out.  Even the odd stoppage usually came from an accumulation of punches, not the big bombs he had at 135lbs.  By the time the early 90’s came around, he managed to score some knockdowns, as his power had finally caught up to his size. Hector Camacho - While moving up in weight is not usually blamed for Camacho’s lack of power, it is important to remember that at 130lbs, he scored knockouts, once he moved up in weight, he brought his speed, defensive ability, and chin.  His power was gone.  While many believe Edwin Rosario put the fear of punishment in the “Macho Man” with his power, even against lighter hitting fighters, Camacho fought in retreat, rarely harming anyone.  It would appear his inability keep fighters off of him was as much the culprit for his safety first style as any residual effects from the “Chapo” escape. Mike McCallum - The “Body Snatcher” did not lose the ability his nickname suggests, in a hall-of-fame career that spanned 154lbs to 175lbs.  He did lose the effectiveness in finishing off his opponents, however.  In his 154lb campaign, he was unbeatable, and usually stopped his opponents, early or late.  Once up to Middleweight, though, the power fell off.  It was virtually gone by the time he reached 175lbs.

Manny Pacquiao - He scored brutal knockouts from 108lbs to 147lbs, and seemed to carry it no matter if he was the bigger or smaller man during the fight.  Even at 154lbs, where he fails tos core knockdowns, he still disfigures faces.  While trainers and nutrition can make sure technique and strength are added, they cannot affect power.  Many will have it for as lng as he fights, in whatever division he campaigns. Thomas Hearns - A KO artist at welterweight.  A KO artist at cruiserweight.  When Thoams Hearns went the distance, it was a tribute to the chin/toughness of his opponents.  His frame never looked anything less than lean and explosive, no matter what division he was competing in.  The two most impressive Ko wins of his carrer may have taken place at 147 and 160, (Cuevas and Duran), but ask natura light heavy Dennis Andries about hearns’ pop at 175.  Andires, who would go on to win that same WBC starp two more times, hit the deck 5 times against “The Hitman”.  His chin seemed to adjust as well, as he was no more vulnerable to knockout losses at 147, than he was at 190. Oscar de la Hoya - While it may seem as if ‘The Godlen Boy” had less big KO’s in the higher divisions he competed in, it is due to two factors.  Numebr one: He went too big too fast.  Oppiste problem of Duran, his body had not caught up with his junior middle and middleweight leaps.  Also, he rarely had tune-up fights at the higher weigths, and lasted longer against the top fighters of his day.  However, during the rare appearance against someone vulnerable: Kamau, Charpentier, Gatti, and Mayorga, it was clear that Oscar was still the same brutal puncher at the bigger weights.  If his punch didn’t make it up higher, it was against higher-level fighters, not weights. James Toney - It may seem odd that I mention him, since he was never known as a big puncher. 

Michael Grant vs. Tye Fields??  And Joel Casamayor vs. Mike Anchondo??  Talk about a fight card that doesn’t belong on PPV!  This card belongs in the “everyone involved should retire, regardless of what happens” category.  If anything, the fact that all 4 of them are shot, and/or exposed, may make it exciting.  However, for those who know boxing, it will just be more sad than anything else.  This card does not deserve a place in my official predictions section, but I will make my picks here:  Grant by 1st round KO, and Casamayor by decision or late round TKO. Speaking of semi-retired fighters, it looks like Matthew Hatton does have one thing on his brother, Ricky… chin.  His lack of skills left plenty of chances for him to show us that. Speaking of last Saturday’s fight, it’s not that Saul Alvarez looked bad, but don’t be surprised if the ‘brother revenge’ fight against Austin Trout doesn’t happen just yet.  He can ill afford a loss now, and just like the man they are comparing him to (JC Chavez), Alvarez’s style lends itself to a weakness for slick African American boxers. Speaking of 80’s and 90’s African-American fighters, may we please finally stop calling Buddy McGirt an elite trainer?  Nothing against him personally, but he has completely jumped the shark.  His fighters never win, and complain when they leave him.  We all got a little too excited when he happened to be the trainer of Arturo Gatti, when Gatti remembered to box.  I honestly know people who are diminishing Sergei Dzindzruk’s chances this Saturday, because McGirt is his new trainer. 

Marcos Maidana vs. Erik Morales – Ten years ago, Morales would have outclassed a tough guy like Maidana.  Now, however, and especially at this weight, what does he have that will deter the Argentinian?  Maidana is a seriously flawed fighter, but he is powerful, fairly durable, has a ton of heart, and possesses impressive stamina.  Basically, he is a bigger David Diaz with more power, and better skin.  We all saw how badly a younger Morales did there.  Morales has been able to pad his record enough to garner him another payday, and apparently this is it.  He boxes well early, but gets overpowered as the fight wears on.  And I don’t mean it will have to wear on for long.  ‘El Terrible” will take a bad beating, and be rescued either by corner or referee.  Maidana by 4th or 5th round TKO, in a match that distracts us from “ Chino ”s technical deficiencies. Amir Khan vs. Paul McCloskey – This fight is merely a chance for Khan to go show off his new status to the home fans, while killing time for a Bradley match to be negotiated.  If McCloskey was a serious threat, we would not be seeing this fight.  However, that seems to be the kind of fighter which poses the most risk to Khan.  McCloskey is unbeaten, but completely untested… his best wins coming against a shot former lightweight champ Cesar Bazan, and a once-dangerous Colin Lynes.  He is a good finisher late, and riding a four-fight KO streak, so if Khan gets tired, watch out.  However, I think we can count on Khan to win a wide unanimous decision, or late round TKO. Andre Berto vs. Victor Ortiz – This is a tough one to call, but for the most part, Berto can do away with the lower weight class fighters.  Also, Ortiz is already becoming the kind of fighter we forgive for a loss. 

Today, I am looking at the three biggest upsets in heavyweight title fight history, and why they happened.  I will also examine why they were such big upsets to begin with.  History has a way of making us forget the element of surprise, as it stood at the time of these shocking events. Buster Douglas KO 10 Mike Tyson - A 42-1 underdog shocks the boxing world, pulling off the biggest upset in boxing history. Why the odds were so wide – It was Tyson!  He was the most famous athlete in the world at that time, a KO machine, who barely needed to break a sweat to defeat most contenders in a soft heavyweight division.  Douglas also had a tendency to display weaknesses in the chin, stamina, and heart departments.  He was also not a big puncher.  His size and impressive boxing ability were his only allies, and Tyson had vanquished far greater challengers. Why it happened – Douglas used his past defeats, as well as recent personal tragedies (his mother’s death, and son’s mother’s illness) as motivation to stand up to Tyson.  He also overcame his stamina and heart issues, which left only his chin.  Tyson was smothered on so many occasions, he could rarely find it.  Also, Tyson turned out to be the classic bully… whose heart was drained by his opponent’s lack of fear.  When “Iron Mike” could not intimidate, he became the follower.  It also didn’t help that Tyson’s corner was run by inexperienced Don King yes-men, who were completely unprepared to give Tyson decent advice.  Instead they tried to stop his swelling eye with a condom filled with ice water, and continuously implored him to "get inside and work".  Tyson stayed in the fight only to find his puncher’s chance… when even that big shot did not end the fight, he succumbed quickly thereafter. James J. Braddock W15 Max Baer - A 10-1 underdog, expected to be flattened, outboxes the feared, powerful champion. Why the odds were so wide – Braddock may have been on a hot streak, and had never been knocked out, but Baer was considered an unmoveable force.  Braddock was merely a light heavyweight who had exposed some over-rated contenders, to earn an unlikely shot.  Baer’s fists had claimed the lives of two men, and the scalps of many others, and it was thought that Braddock’s style lended him to suffer potentially serious damage.

In the inaugural card at The OC Fairgrounds ‘Hangar’ in Costa Mesa, Roy Engebrecht promotions moved it’s legendary “Battle in the Ballroom” cards out of the Irvine Marriott and into a new facility.  Among the sponsors were Tecate , SC Fuels, and the litigation legal firm of Callahan and Blaine.  Sellout crowd was 1,568.  Some of the new features included VIP booths surrounding the general seating, as well as a big screen featuring ads, film clips, and a live feed of all fight action. In the main event, Junior Welterweight Aris Ambriz, 15-1-1-8KO’s won an exciting eight-round decision over Huntington Park ’s Hector “Teco” Serrano 13-2-5KO’s.  Serrano had a large contingency in the crowd, sporting “teco” T-shirts, and chanting his name, but it failed to get the fighter motivated.  Other than rocking the Azusa native with a big right hand in the second, Serrano’s offense remained limited.  Ambriz controlled the action with boxing from a distance early, then turned on the action late.  In the last few rounds, Serrano’s offense was barely existent, as Ambriz pounded away.  Scores were 79-73 twice, and 77-75.  Convicted Artist scored 78-74. In heavyweight action, Sunrise , FL southpaw Quatrine Hill, 4-1-1KO, scored a one-sided four round decision over Phoenix ’s Chad Davis, 2-8.  Davis fought in retreat the entire four rounds, and while Hill appeared to have his foe hurt in the third and fourth rounds, Davis ’ defensive style allowed the fight to go the full distance.  In the cruiserweight co-main event.  Dallas, TX Brent Urban moved to 7-3-1-5KO’s with a 2nd round KO over Los Angeles ’ Joseph Jones.  Jones boxed well in round one, but was caught by a big right hand and ropped early in round two. 

I often pick on Germany as the place where fighters can expect to be screwed if they do not fight for the correct promoter.  England is also a place you an go if you wish to have trigger happy refs wave it off any time the visiting fighter so much as wobbles slightly.  Canadian officials are not consistently bad, but they seem to trade off the ways that they reward hometown fighters.  Weird referees (Marlon Wright in Bute – Andrade 1), bad judging (Dingaan Thobela losing to Davey Hilton), etc.  Argentina ?  Don’t get me started on the robberies that go on there… starting with Wilfred Benitez’ money and passport.  However, here are a few examples of places where fighters can go, where fairness may not be a guarantee, but at least more likely to happen. Mexico – Don’t get me wrong… if you’re a tourist in that country, carry a machine gun.  If you are fighting a man with the surname Chavez, just go home.  Mexico and fairness are not often mentioned in the same breath.  However, ask South African Simphiwe Nonqawi about winning decisions in Mexico .  He has won multiple decisions there, over another beloved Mexican fighting family, the Arces.  Austin Trout just came away with a wide decision over Rigoberto Alvarez.  That is a fighter from another family that is rapidly gaining a following in Mexico .  He is the brother of Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, but that correlation led to no favoritism from the judges.  Even when a fighter does get a lousy decision, like Matt Vanda losing to Chavez Jr. in their first match, the fans do not let their national pride stop them from voicing their disapproval.  Maybe that is scaring the judges straight. USA – I’m sure Felix Sturm and Axel Schulz would disagree.  However, given the country they come from, they have no right to complain.

Fighters may switch trainers, styles, and even improve or diminish their punching ability as they age and progress.  The one thing that should remain fairly constant is punch receptivity.  It should, anyway, right?  Bone structure doesn’t alter as a fighter ages.  Sure, much of a fighters ‘chin’ is mental, as Jake La Motta insisted, and Oliver McCall practiced.  This would also explain why 80’s fighters like Gerrie Coetzee and Doug de Witt were considered rock-chinned in their earlier careers, only to be labeled weaker in the same category in their later ones.  Once you know you can be hurt, you're likelyhood of being hurt again is much greater.  This past year saw many fighters' supposed durability fail, and not slowly.  In a quick a blinding flash. Juan Urango – Sure, we expected him to be outboxed by superior fighters, but the fighter who had suffered no more than a couple flash knockdowns (usually at the hands of fighters who brutally KO other men), suddenly became human.  After being outboxed for most of the first 8 rounds, Urango was destroyed by one hard uppercut from Devon Alexander.  The fact that Alexander is not much of a puncher, made this all the more shocking. Paul Williams – “The Punisher” seemed like someone who wasn’t going to be able to utilize his amazing style for long.  Not the huge puncher most lanky fighters are, he made up for it with his activity, chin, and stamina… also foreign to many of the bigger fighters.  While his conditioning will likely not be in question, the chin will be what everyone is watching the next time Williams fights.